2024: UN Humanitarian Forecasts for Ukraine

The war against Ukraine continues to cause deaths, destruction, and increasing humanitarian needs. The fighting and hostilities continue to devastate parts of Ukraine and damage civilian infrastructure, including homes, schools, hospitals, and water, gas, and electricity supply systems, which in some cases were direct targets of attacks. The country has been facing a large-scale invasion by Russia since February 2022, in addition to 10 years of conflict in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The need for urgent aid persists

2024 will be marked by the most immediate and necessary response. According to UN Humanitarian Agency OCHA, more than 14.6 million people, around 40% of the Ukrainian population, will need humanitarian aid in 2024.

“Although Ukraine is talked about less and less, the situation here in the country is becoming increasingly extreme. And we have seen this over the past year. As the war devastates towns and villages near the front line, humanitarian needs in these areas are reaching catastrophic levels,” explains Saviano Abreu, Head of Communication and spokesperson for OCHA in Ukraine, from Kyiv.

The prolongation of the conflict will result in persisting and worsening urgent needs in the coming months. There are over 3.3 million people in need of assistance in the frontline areas of the east and south. In these communities, including territories under temporary military control of the Russian Federation, millions of people struggle to access adequate water, food, shelter, fuel for heating their homes and cooking, healthcare, protection, and essential supplies.

Long-term effects of the war

Furthermore, in 2024 the effects of the war will continue to impact the economy, families, and infrastructure. Prolonged displacements and the war’s impact on employment and incomes have pushed many to the brink.

The war has forced millions of people to flee, and nearly four million are still internally displaced throughout Ukraine, while over six million live as refugees abroad. Displacements are depleting the resources of many Ukrainians and their ability to cope with job or income loss.

Although massive displacements are not anticipated in 2024, the war in eastern Ukraine will continue to force people to flee to save their lives.

Poverty, vulnerable groups, and gender-based violence

The war has resulted in 65% of households reporting a decrease in their incomes since February 2022. 44% of households struggle to obtain money to meet their needs, and 45% of the population belongs to at least one vulnerable group. Additionally, 3.6 million people are at risk of experiencing gender-based violence. If the invasion continues, these numbers are likely to increase.

The war has also severely affected the economy and worsened deficiencies in livelihoods, protection, and healthcare services. However, as time passes, this becomes increasingly evident. This poses an additional burden on the already strained capacities of government social protection systems, which continue to provide assistance nationwide.

The large-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia has affected the incomes or livelihoods of millions of Ukrainians. According to the World Bank, poverty rates increased from 5% to 24% in 2022, pushing 7.1 million Ukrainians below the poverty line.


Ukrainian children will continue to suffer the effects of the war. More than five million children have had their education interrupted. Thousands of schools, preschools, and other educational facilities have been damaged or destroyed. Only half of the 3.9 million children in Ukrainian-controlled territory have attended school in person since the start of the school year.

The position of the Secretary-General remains unchanged

For UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the large-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia challenges the fundamental principles and values of our multilateral system.

The position of the UN will continue to be unequivocal: We are committed to the sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders.


The United Nations will continue to support all diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, in accordance with the United Nations Charter, international law, and relevant resolutions of the General Assembly. The UN is ready to support the parties if they request our assistance in any negotiation or dialogue.

Despite everything described in this article, Saviano Abreu, OCHA’s press officer in Ukraine, highlights that for 2024:

“The people of Ukraine, and I see it every day, do not allow this unbearable situation to lead them to despair. They are doing everything possible to cope with daily challenges and survive. But they need help. International support for humanitarian aid in Ukraine must remain stronger than ever.”

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