From the resurgence of ancient microbes to the end of property insurance, from solar radiation modification techniques to youthful eco-anxiety, a new report published on July 15, 2024 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Council for Science (ICS) anticipates the world’s “emerging challenges” when it comes to climate.
Using a medium to long-term prospective approach, the study identifies eight major changes that are accelerating the current triple planetary crisis (climate change, loss of nature and biodiversity, pollution and waste).
In a novel take, the report highlights 18 “signals of change” – major trends that represent risks and, more rarely, promises of progress. Hundreds of experts around the world identified these trends through consultations.
This important report, “Navigating towards new horizons – A global foresight report on planetary health and human wellbeing,” tackles the complexity of a “poly-crisis” whose cogs are intertwined. It will feed into September discussions at the United Nations Summit of the Future.
1 – “Irreversible” climate change and threats to health
The report states, “The world is edging ever closer to environmental change that may be irreversible”.
A vast system of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – of which the Gulf Stream is a part – represents a key element in climate regulation. According to studies, it could collapse as early as 2057.
“At that speed, and the scale of reverberating impacts that would ensue, adaptation would be near impossible” to climate change, the report notes.
Four “signals of change” also sound alarm bells. The melting of Arctic permafrost risks releasing ancient microbes and generating epidemics. In 2016, this phenomenon already triggered an anthrax epidemic in Siberia, killing humans and animals.
New zoonoses – infectious diseases transmitted from animals to humans, such as the Ebola virus or -19 – are also possible. Virus resistance to antibiotics is on the rise, making even more common diseases more challenging to treat. Finally, there is a real risk of unforeseen impacts from harmful chemicals and materials, given that barely 5% of known chemicals are measured in the environment.
2 – Scarcity of the mineral resources needed for the transition
The great paradox of adapting to climate change is that demand for minerals and rare metals, essential to fueling the transition to zero net consumption, is set to increase fourfold between now and 2040. The extraction of lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel and rare earths, among others, risks not only worsening pollution and waste, but also triggering new conflicts.
Another reported risk is the rapid expansion of space activity and orbital space debris, which can damage the ozone layer and undermine geopolitical stability.
3 – Artificial intelligence, digital transformation and technology
Artificial intelligence (AI) and digital transformation can undoubtedly provide solutions. However, they will also impact the environment. They will mean increased demand for minerals and rare earth elements, as well as water resources, to meet the demands of data centers.
The use of AI in weapons systems and military applications, and the development of synthetic biology need to be examined from an environmental perspective.
A positive signal for change is “the emergence of a mindset of continuous learning and ‘exnovation’” – a term that refers to the habit of radically changing consumption and production models, which would be more readily accepted. Exnovation would lead to a “new paradigm in which the status quo would no longer be accepted and sustainable transitions would prevail”.
Another positive signal is the possible “deployment of solar radiation modification” (SRM). This geo-engineering project aims to reflect the sun’s rays back into space to limit temperature rises.
It would immediately impact climate change, but carries many risks (undesirable effects in polar regions and the tropics, risk of increased warming in the event of cessation, risk of compromised mitigation efforts, etc.). “Choosing to ignore SRM altogether at this stage could carry its own risks—leaving society and decision-makers ill-prepared and potentially misguided,” the report notes.
4 – A new era of conflict
Armed conflict and violence are on the rise and changing. “Between 2021-23, there was a dramatic increase in casualties, mainly caused by four conflicts: the civil war in the Tigray region in Ethiopia, the civil war in Sudan, the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza”. No fewer than 59 state-based conflicts across 34 countries were recorded over this period, “the highest level since 1946”.
These conflicts degrade and pollute ecosystems, thus increasing the vulnerability of affected populations. The “signals of change” here concern the emergence of autonomous and artificial intelligence weapons systems, as well as new technologies leading to “the abusive use of biological agents”.
5 – Mass forced displacement
Today, one person in 69 is forcibly displaced, almost twice as many as ten years ago. With 120 million people displaced in April 2024 due to conflict or climate change, 1.5% of the world’s population is affected.
The risks associated with this phenomenon include the emergence of areas rendered uninhabitable by climate change, with population displacement becoming the norm.
6 – Growing inequalities
“While the top 10 per cent account for more than three-quarters of total global wealth, the bottom 50 per cent of the world population own just 2 per cent or almost nothing. Consequently, “the top 1% and the bottom 66% generate the same level of emissions”, 16% of total emissions.
Two possible trends are associated with these inequalities. First, “privatized micro-environmentalism” would mean the “creation of private-access, enclosed and sometimes artificial habitats that offer stable ecosystem services to highly paying members”. Second, the end of insurance as we know it would happen on property located in excessively exposed areas. This would “force governments to step in to prevent collapse of the housing market.”
7 – Disinformation, declining trust and polarization
The report highlights the proliferation of misinformation and “fake news”. This was evident in the recent COVID-19 crisis, and the spread of climate-sceptic theories, with political repercussions in the form of rising populism.
One associated risk is “decisions increasingly detached from scientific evidence, (…) based on populist rhetoric and community pressures”.
Another danger is “eco-anxiety, an emerging crisis hidden in plain sight”. This crisis is said to have consequences for the mental health of children and young people, affecting general wellbeing.
Growing subsidies to the oil sector represent another risk. They prevent investment in clean energies and set back energy transition efforts.
Finally, there is a heightened risk of corruption in carbon offsetting. This scenario would see “a proliferation of fraudulent carbon sequestration projects, undermining mitigation efforts.” Confidence in carbon offset markets would collapse.
8 – Multiple centers and governance
Governance is changing, marked by waning confidence in public institutions and the growing influence of non-state actors: NGOs, multinationals, the “super-rich”, mercenary companies and organized crime.
After the Copenhagen Summit in 2009, the limits of inter-governmental processes became apparent, as did the need for a more decentralized approach to climate governance. Today, the regulatory framework of international treaties is complemented by actions led by transnational networks of cities, corporations and civil society groups.
Governance trends involve “new tools for redirecting global financial flows”: government demands on economic operators’ environmental impact and the penalties imposed are having a tangible effect on stock prices and investments.
Networked local resilience would see communities “frustrated by government failures” operate as a network and become “the primary driving force” behind actions to increase climate resilience.
What are the solutions?
Experts recommend adopting a new social contract that engages a diverse range of stakeholders, including indigenous peoples, and enables young people to participate more actively and rethink measures of progress.
Governments and companies can also introduce shorter-term targets and indicators to make climate governance more “agile and adaptable”.
Finally, the report hopes that work on knowledge of the issues, monitoring and data would make it possible to “guide governance” in an informed way.