Climate, terrorism and hunger: Mozambique’s triple crisis

Three cyclones in 2025. Children forcibly recruited or abducted by armed groups. Only 40 per cent of those in need of food aid actually receive it. Even then, the aid reaches them in “woeful” amounts, notes Paola Emmerson, representative of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Mozambique, amid “major stockouts” linked to a decline in international funding.

Mozambique, a nation of 35.6 million people bordering South Africa and the Indian Ocean, has been confronting a triple crisis for nine years.

The context: recovery, investment and persistent poverty

Like Angola, the former Portuguese colony endured one of Africa’s longest civil wars, from 1977 to 1992, with fighting concentrated in the north, the centre and rural areas.

This impoverished, largely agrarian nation has since recovered, first emerging as a tourist destination thanks to its beaches and later attracting massive foreign investment after the discovery of vast natural gas reserves in 2010.

While awaiting the benefits of this gas windfall, the country still ranks 182nd, between Afghanistan and Madagascar, out of 193 countries on the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI).

A jihadist group spreads terror in northern Mozambique

In the northern province of Cabo Delgado, an armed jihadist group known as Al Shabaab has been active since 2017. Authorities have failed to defeat the group, despite assistance from Rwanda, which deployed more than 1,000 troops beginning in July 2021 under an agreement between the two countries.

The violence, including the beheading of civilians, hostage-taking and the burning of homes, has spread to the provinces of Nampula and Niassa.

Faced with this military stalemate, Australian national Ben Saul, the UN Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism, called in August 2026 for a negotiated solution to be prioritised over a purely defensive strategy.

He pointed to the “root causes” of the conflict: social and spatial inequalities within the country that have fuelled resentment since the discovery of major gas deposits, particularly off the coast of Cabo Delgado.

“The Government and international partners should intensify efforts to counter violent extremist ideology, strengthen State institutions and human development in the north, ensure communities in Cabo Delgado benefit fairly from the province’s rich natural resources, effectively regulate extractive industries, and strengthen inclusive governance.”

Climate change

Exposed to the effects of climate change, Mozambique is increasingly being devastated by cyclones. It suffers severe flooding during the austral summer, from December to March, but also experiences drought associated with the El Niño climate phenomenon. National authorities have established an early warning system known as “Red Alert”.

In January 2026, massive floods caused by torrential rains affected 10 of the country’s 11 provinces, resulting in more than 270 deaths, according to authorities, and triggering a new cholera outbreak.

The damage to the economy and the population has been immense. The recent floods damaged or destroyed more than 8,000 km of roads, 440,000 hectares of crops, 21,000 homes, 302 health centres, 717 schools and 53 water supply systems.

More than 600,000 people displaced

Between September and December 2025 alone, 330,000 people were forced to flee. In total, insecurity and climate change have displaced 600,000 people, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR).

Meanwhile, UNICEF reports that approximately 4.8 million people in Mozambique require humanitarian assistance, more than half of them children.

“The humanitarian response is reaching its breaking point at a very dangerous moment for children, with rapid displacement and a high risk of devastating cyclones in the months to come,” said Eagleton.

Some families are making the risky decision to return home without knowing whether the situation has stabilised.

Declining international aid

When national authorities appeal for international assistance following climate-related disasters, which have occurred with increasing frequency since the severe floods of 2000, UN agencies launch funding appeals.

In May, for instance, the UN raised $98 million in emergency funding to help affected communities. This amount forms part of the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for Mozambique, which estimates total requirements of $534 million to assist 1.7 million people.

Against a backdrop of sharply declining international aid, the plan has so far received only 42 per cent of the funding required.